TD Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX)

TD Bank continues in the bear trend. It recently broke below the November low, as did Royal Bank and The Bank of Nova Scotia. The Bank of Montreal has not done so yet but it may be a safe bet it will.

Too soon to buy Canadian Bank stocks. The P/Es are still in the 8-10 range.

TD Bank follow-up January 8, 2008

TD bank stock is close to an interesting milestone. If it breaks below the $64 dollar level this makes a much lower price drop more likely (not guaranteed).

I have been following Canadian Banks for some time. Bank of Commerce and Bank of Montreal have both seen a large price drop so far. My best guess is that we will see similar drops in all Canadian Banks. They have all had an excellent Bull Market run for many years and a large price drop (Bear) would still qualify as normal market action.

Today's news includes a "rumour" that TD may be exposed to the US Subprime Real Estate problem. This would not surprise me as TD has been working on getting a foothold in the US Banking industry. This rumour could lead to a break below the $64 level which in turn could lead to much lower prices to come.

TD Bank...penny stock or blue chip?

This is such an interesting move by the price for TD Bank stock that I had to post it. It took the best part of the last 2 months to come down from $75 to a low of $64. Then, acting more like a penny stock driven by the power of a stock market bubble it regained $75, an increase of about 17 percent over the last four trading days. Now that is volatility!

Back In Town

Just returned from a 5 day trip to Vancouver and Kelowna area. Spent some cash, did a little big city shopping and saw weather from pouring rain all day to sunshine with a little snow thrown in as we crossed the coast mountains. A nice change of pace. I will try to post a pic or two in the next little while.

I see the price of TD Bank stock is still dropping. Near $68 today. TD Bank still looks like it has more downside in the short-term. Will it go below the low of $64 in August?

Looks like my call for Royal Bank to hit $59 in the short term was ...wrong. It never went above $57. Fooled by randomness?

I'm more interested in the total market trend. Is the TSX in just a short term correction or in the early stages of a larger Bear Market?? It could go either way.

Black Monday Anniversary...20 Years Ago Today

TD Bank broke below $70 today...you can decide if I was just a lucky coin flipper or not. I'm expecting it to go lower yet.

The media have mentioned that today is the 20 year anniversary of Black Monday and compared today's market drop to that day in 1987. In terms of the numbers, today's drop (Friday) was much less of a decline in the indexes. It is interesting how the media plays a significant role in spreading the market news. Now everyone will likely become aware of it over the weekend.

From a very broad market perspective, the 1987 Bear Market was only exceptional because the market dropped so fast, then recovered the loss relatively quickly. Otherwise - it was not anything out of the ordinary. From a portfolio viewpoint, does it matter much if one sees the drop over 3 days or 1 year? It shouldn't for the long term buy and holders. Most Bear Markets take several years for the total decline.

The stage may be set for a Bear Market at this time and today's small drop was just part of it. The Bull Market has done really well the last 5 years - moving almost in a straight line for that period of time. A 148% total gain on the S&P TSX Composite and somewhat less for the DJIA. We shouldn't be surprised if many great buying opportunities appear in the not too distant future. If so...keep in mind it is not a problem...it is an opportunity.

I leave tomorrow on a short vacation to the mainland and may not post for the next week. Being retired--our travel plan is open ended and it will depend on the weather and how we feel that day.

It will be interesting to watch the market next week.

TD Bank Update Oct. 18, 2007

I continue to see weakness in the shares of TD Bank. It looks like a very high probability of a short-term (days?) price drop below the $70 level.

It appears to be declining in conjunction with US Bank stock weakness...all that pessimism about the mortgage stuff going on down there.

Lower price opportunities ahead?

TD Bank Update Oct. 9, 2007

TD continues to show short-term weakness, with an obvious decrease in volume over the last 4 days. In my experience - this is a classic sign of a further drop in price. The buyers at this price level, at this point in time, are running out and sellers will be forced to accept lower prices. It is a vicious cycle where each new lower level makes a new group of stock holders nervous.

In any event, this downturn is only temporary in nature.

Royal Bank Stock Going Up?

Every once in a while I stumble upon a stock chart that has some good forecasting patterns. I guess because I have some money in a Dividend Mutual Fund that includes Canadian Bank stocks such as Royal Bank - I follow the charts on a casual basis. This forecast will not change anything I do with money....it is just for academic amusement.

Contrary to what you might have heard, there are recurring patterns in stock price charts, and some times, they have predictive value. In this case, Royal Bank has been down for the last 4 months or so and the question is...will it go back up soon or what? I noticed that it appears to have just completed a bottom pattern that predicts a minimum increase to near $59. There's more... this apparent short-term bottom, and turn upwards, is consistent with the Elliott Wave Count. In addition, because the last high was $60, there's a good chance that a turn upwards, at this time, will carry on to new highs above $60.

The Bank of Montreal (BM), down from $73 for the last 5 months, may also be on the threshold of completing a short-term bottom and turning upwards pattern as well. This one needs a little more time to clarify.

I also see that the TD Bank recently completed a bottom pattern and rocketed to a new high. Yesterday's free-fall drop for TD is a normal reaction following a very fast advance...likely very temporary.

It will be interesting to follow what happens here.