Friday, October 19, 2007

Black Monday Anniversary...20 Years Ago Today

TD Bank broke below $70 can decide if I was just a lucky coin flipper or not. I'm expecting it to go lower yet.

The media have mentioned that today is the 20 year anniversary of Black Monday and compared today's market drop to that day in 1987. In terms of the numbers, today's drop (Friday) was much less of a decline in the indexes. It is interesting how the media plays a significant role in spreading the market news. Now everyone will likely become aware of it over the weekend.

From a very broad market perspective, the 1987 Bear Market was only exceptional because the market dropped so fast, then recovered the loss relatively quickly. Otherwise - it was not anything out of the ordinary. From a portfolio viewpoint, does it matter much if one sees the drop over 3 days or 1 year? It shouldn't for the long term buy and holders. Most Bear Markets take several years for the total decline.

The stage may be set for a Bear Market at this time and today's small drop was just part of it. The Bull Market has done really well the last 5 years - moving almost in a straight line for that period of time. A 148% total gain on the S&P TSX Composite and somewhat less for the DJIA. We shouldn't be surprised if many great buying opportunities appear in the not too distant future. If so...keep in mind it is not a is an opportunity.

I leave tomorrow on a short vacation to the mainland and may not post for the next week. Being retired--our travel plan is open ended and it will depend on the weather and how we feel that day.

It will be interesting to watch the market next week.

1 comment:

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