Friday, October 26, 2007

Back In Town

Just returned from a 5 day trip to Vancouver and Kelowna area. Spent some cash, did a little big city shopping and saw weather from pouring rain all day to sunshine with a little snow thrown in as we crossed the coast mountains. A nice change of pace. I will try to post a pic or two in the next little while.

I see the price of TD Bank stock is still dropping. Near $68 today. TD Bank still looks like it has more downside in the short-term. Will it go below the low of $64 in August?

Looks like my call for Royal Bank to hit $59 in the short term was ...wrong. It never went above $57. Fooled by randomness?

I'm more interested in the total market trend. Is the TSX in just a short term correction or in the early stages of a larger Bear Market?? It could go either way.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Black Monday Anniversary...20 Years Ago Today

TD Bank broke below $70 can decide if I was just a lucky coin flipper or not. I'm expecting it to go lower yet.

The media have mentioned that today is the 20 year anniversary of Black Monday and compared today's market drop to that day in 1987. In terms of the numbers, today's drop (Friday) was much less of a decline in the indexes. It is interesting how the media plays a significant role in spreading the market news. Now everyone will likely become aware of it over the weekend.

From a very broad market perspective, the 1987 Bear Market was only exceptional because the market dropped so fast, then recovered the loss relatively quickly. Otherwise - it was not anything out of the ordinary. From a portfolio viewpoint, does it matter much if one sees the drop over 3 days or 1 year? It shouldn't for the long term buy and holders. Most Bear Markets take several years for the total decline.

The stage may be set for a Bear Market at this time and today's small drop was just part of it. The Bull Market has done really well the last 5 years - moving almost in a straight line for that period of time. A 148% total gain on the S&P TSX Composite and somewhat less for the DJIA. We shouldn't be surprised if many great buying opportunities appear in the not too distant future. If so...keep in mind it is not a is an opportunity.

I leave tomorrow on a short vacation to the mainland and may not post for the next week. Being retired--our travel plan is open ended and it will depend on the weather and how we feel that day.

It will be interesting to watch the market next week.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

TD Bank Update Oct. 18, 2007

I continue to see weakness in the shares of TD Bank. It looks like a very high probability of a short-term (days?) price drop below the $70 level.

It appears to be declining in conjunction with US Bank stock weakness...all that pessimism about the mortgage stuff going on down there.

Lower price opportunities ahead?

Monday, October 15, 2007

Blog Action Day...Environment

Blog Action excellent idea.

Here's my post for blog action day.

I recently changed over from a 6 cylinder car to a 4 cylinder car. I also bike to the grocery store once in a while. So on this topic I'm not doing as bad as I was a few years ago. Here's a few random thoughts.

I was watching a show about Greenpeace a few days ago and Greenpeace members succeeded, at great personal risk, in bringing an end to the hunting of whales, by simply filming and showing the public what was going on. They ran around the whaling ships in small inflatable craft taking pictures of the hunting as it happened. One of their first films shown on TV around the world was a harpoon being shot at a whale.

Public opinion and political opinion soon changed as a result of those efforts. A simple but powerful idea....just show the pubic what people were doing. Bring our attention to it. Get peopole thinking and talking about it. I expect that after that event, anyone associated with whale products, buyers or sellers, started to feel a little guilty.

It makes me wonder if that same tactic could work for other "big city" things? For example, if Greenpeace were to film people doing things such as filling up a large gas guzzling luxury car at the pump or filling up a large motor yacht at the dock, would that help change things? Would people feel guilty owning such things?

I guess today...anyone with a digital camera could start doing it and just put the footage up on U-Tube. If the footage is interesting enough, especially if it is a well-known person, it may make it to TV.

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

TD Bank Update Oct. 9, 2007

TD continues to show short-term weakness, with an obvious decrease in volume over the last 4 days. In my experience - this is a classic sign of a further drop in price. The buyers at this price level, at this point in time, are running out and sellers will be forced to accept lower prices. It is a vicious cycle where each new lower level makes a new group of stock holders nervous.

In any event, this downturn is only temporary in nature.

Friday, October 5, 2007

Cheap Coffee for two at Tim Horton's

Now to be honest...I haven't done this for awhile, and it was originally my ignorance that let me discover a cheaper way to buy coffee for two at Tim Horton's.

Order their largest coffee, whatever they call it, then when the new hire (and they are always new it seems), hands you the large cardboard cup - ask for two real cups as well. You can then sit down and split the large coffee with a friend. It's cheaper than ordering two regular sized coffees.

I stumbled upon this money saving trick, while driving alone across western Canada, where Tim Horton's are easy to find and open 24/7. I travelled with a thermos, had one cup of coffee in the restaurant and put the rest in a thermos... one for the road.

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Royal Bank Stock Going Up?

Every once in a while I stumble upon a stock chart that has some good forecasting patterns. I guess because I have some money in a Dividend Mutual Fund that includes Canadian Bank stocks such as Royal Bank - I follow the charts on a casual basis. This forecast will not change anything I do with is just for academic amusement.

Contrary to what you might have heard, there are recurring patterns in stock price charts, and some times, they have predictive value. In this case, Royal Bank has been down for the last 4 months or so and the question is...will it go back up soon or what? I noticed that it appears to have just completed a bottom pattern that predicts a minimum increase to near $59. There's more... this apparent short-term bottom, and turn upwards, is consistent with the Elliott Wave Count. In addition, because the last high was $60, there's a good chance that a turn upwards, at this time, will carry on to new highs above $60.
The Bank of Montreal (BM), down from $73 for the last 5 months, may also be on the threshold of completing a short-term bottom and turning upwards pattern as well. This one needs a little more time to clarify.
I also see that the TD Bank recently completed a bottom pattern and rocketed to a new high. Yesterday's free-fall drop for TD is a normal reaction following a very fast advance...likely very temporary.
It will be interesting to follow what happens here.