Friday, January 25, 2008

TSX Going Lower now?

I'm seeing a number of signs that the market rally that started on Tuesday near 12,000 may have run its course. This is a very short-term prediction.

The TSX Comp index hit a high this am of 13,171. Now its always possible that a lot of new money may enter the market and keep this rally going for a while yet. The market always has incredible flexibility.

If this was the complete end of the relatively small bear rally and not just the first leg of a longer term rally...then the market is free to resume its fall below the low of 12,000. So far - this rally has taken on the shape of an upward pointing wedge. This shape is a common pattern that forms during bear markets. This pattern is more pronounced in RIM where the required decreasing volume pattern matches very well.

To put all of this in perspective...I firmly believe that the TSX Index will eventually bottom and then recover all of the lost ground, eventually making new all time highs.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

If you're going to do it too then I won't bother! There's no point doing the same thing once more.

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