Monday, January 21, 2008

Bear Market Fear

The TSX Composite Index broke below the 12, 500 level today to a low near 12,120. I was expecting this break below the 12,500 level. It is just more data to support my forecast. Down about 17 % from the last high near 14,647.

A quote from this am..."Tebbutt said the recent market reaction is composed of "irrational" behaviour motivated by fear and uncertainty."

Is it really irrational to sell at this time? I disagree. Even a person with the foggiest notion of how the markets work will likely realize that many people will rush to the exits under the current conditions. Even the US government is "afraid" and "uncertain".

I sold out in November and I’m perfectly comfortable but I have the advantage of being able to see these things coming. When I sold it was a rational decision. I was not afraid. I plan to buy back in closer to the bottom.

I continue to think this Bear Market has a long way to go before it ends.

I see that TD Bank has broken below the $64 level. That was a significant technical sign of continued weakness.

A couple of other high flyers to watch... RIM and POT These two Canadian stocks look like they have entered a downhill snowboard race event. RIM is leading now but that can change overnight.

4 comments:

Doctor Bear said...

I forecasted the bear markets a long time ago. Follow me on my "bear market blog" at http://askdoctorbear.com

Thicken My Wallet said...

Do you believe, however, the market is over-sold?

Four Pillars said...

So are you 100% cash?

Mike

Canadian Money said...

TMW
I think the market indexes most likely have a long way to go down before this Bear is finished.

FP
I currently have about 10 % of all investment funds exposed to the stock market. So I'm not totally immune. The rest is in money market funds, bond index funds, and term deposits.