Following up on my post of March 6th , I am posting today's chart for the S&P 500 Index. The rally that began at that time continues to climb.
For anyone familar with statistical probability, ask yourself what are the odds that someone could have predicted this rally, on the day it began, if the stock market is really just a random walk. I know it is not an impossibility with a random walk but keep in mind here that I do not make a lot of these forecasts. I am not a roulette wheel being spun 7 days per week for years on end. Its quite a different situation. Very few trials here.
As I monitor this rally and ponder my trading decisions I am now trying to see where this rally might end, in terms of it's upper extreme limit. Strong rallies like this one are always temporary, at least in the short-term.
The end of a bear rally, if I am correct in this longer-term expectation, is always harder to call than the start of the rally. My crystal ball is not that clear. A degree of uncertainty is something one must always live with when forecasting the market. The degree of uncertainty varies over time.
There are several possible upper limits, the closest one being near 810. As always, the market will decide if this limit is the most appropriate or not. It all depends upon how much bullishness remains out there in stock market land.