Tuesday, February 19, 2008

TSX Composite Index Forecast Feb. 19, 2008

I was wrong about the TSX Composite Index rally having ended. This made me ask...What am I missing here? I took another look and noticed a detail in the chart that I had overlooked earlier. It always makes sense in hindsight and the market never breaks its own rules.

I now see another possible outcome. The ultimate limit to the current rally could be the low of 13,570 made near January 7th. As always there are other possibilities but this one appears the most likely maximum value before the index makes the next important turn and continutes its zig zag decent toward lower levels. I'm still expecting a final bear market low somewhere below 12,000.

The rally is still rising today....so far it has hit an intraday high of 13,452. With this short-term scenario it can only rise a maximum of another 118 points (13,570-13,452).

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