Putting money into things like CSBs and GICs, earning low rates of interest, is "safe"... but at what cost? When one looks at the stock market over the long term it is quite a comparison. It can make a big difference. Lately, I have been spending more time looking into mutual funds and have been surprised by the impressive returns. Its not that difficult to find 10 year average rates of 10 % per year or more.
The other day it occurred to me that when we put our money into safe GICs etc we are really "giving the bank a loan" at a guaranteed rate of interest. Then, I guess...the banks turn around and invest the money in mortgages or the stock market, depending on mortgage rates, and that is how they make their profit. It also explains why the interest rates for "safe investments" like GICs go up as the "lock in time period" increases. It has to do with market variability and probability.
I expect that a probability analysis of the return rates in the stock market or for most stock market mutual funds would show that the probability of making say more than 5 percent increases quite a bit as the time period increases. It is likely a pretty safe bet for the banks.
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TD Bank continues in the bear trend. It recently broke below the November low, as did Royal Bank and The Bank of Nova Scotia. The Bank of Montreal has not done so yet but it may be a safe bet it will.
The Canadian Financial sector is taking a big hit during this Bear Market and it doesn't look like it is over. So far the TSX Financial Index has corrected back about the last 5 years of increases. A dividend mutual fund, one that includes Canadian Banks has only lost about 4 years of gains. Perhaps the dividends are helping to keep the value higher than the index. Definitely on sale today but my analysis suggests prices will continue lower, at least in the short term. I'm not buying any yet.
