Three Main US Canaries Are All On The Bottom of the Bird Cage

Its now official, the S&P 500, DJIA and DJTA Indexes have all broken below their November 21, 2008 lows. A clear Dow Theory confirmation of a continued US Bear Market, at least for awhile longer. The Nasdaq has yet to do so but I consider it a secondary index.

The Canadian TSX Composite Index is teetering on the edge of doing the same thing. On February 24th it went below its November low during mid-day trading. So there is little hope that Canada will avoid more downside as well.

We should expect the bear market to retrace something more than the ~50 percent loss to date. This bear market is now officially the second largest market loss since 1929-1932 (-89%).

Welcome Back to 1997

The Juggling Dynamite blog brought this movie clip to my attention. It is interesting to watch at this time now that the stock markets are back to 1997 levels. If we don't learn from history we are...

Apple Computer Stock...The Reluctant Fruit

I posted a chart for Apple back in October 2008. At that time the chart was telling me that Apple stock could easily see a price of $40 or lower. That would be about $50 lower than the current price. I have no reason to change that view. However, Apple stock is still hanging in there around $100.

All the major North American stock indexes have either broken below their November lows or they are within a hair's breadth of doing so. The Nasdaq is the index that has the farthest to drop before that happens. It makes me wonder why.

Apple Computer's reluctance to join the next stage of the bear market appears to be one of the reasons for the Nasdaq Index having the farthest to fall. Even Microsoft has had the decency to join the bear party and break it's Nov. low. And, Microsoft has recently warned that their business will suffer during the bear market. Make perfect business sense to me...new computers and the latest software are, in many cases, a luxury that individuals and businesses can postpone to save money. I would guess that Apple Computer will also see lower earnings with the drop in PC sales.

I still think the Apple will fall and we will see a large drop in the price. Based on what the rest of the market has done recently I don't expect we have long to wait before Apple breaks its November low. If that happens, as the Apple falls it will help bring the Nasdaq and other indexes to lower levels.

Dow Trend Confirmation Signals

With respect to the severity of the current bear market, I agree with anyone who thinks that a much deeper bear market, like the one in 1929 (-89 %) is just one possibility.

However, there is another worse case scenario we should keep in mind. It is the possibility of a long duration, more or less sideways bear market, similar to the 1968 to 1983 time period. A lump sum held in the stock market through that entire 15 year period would have earned 0 percent in capital gains.

In fact, we may already be in one of those sideways market periods. It may have begun back in 2000. More so for the US than in Canada. Many stocks started their bear in 2000. Those stocks have already been in a bear market for the last 9 years.

In the short term, I continue to see a high probability of at least some additional downside below the November lows for all N.A. indexes. Likely world wide.

My expectation is based in part on the fact that the DJIA, the DJTA and the TSX Capped Financials and the TSX 60 (as of today) Indexes have all broken below their November lows. In short, we have an abundance of evidence to demonstrate the Dow Theory Trend Continuation signal has been given loud and clear.

Some people continue to hope for a large bear rally at this time. Unfortunately I see little opportunity for this to happen. In fact, a large bear rally may not even happen during this bear market if it goes much deeper. That pattern is only one possible bear scenario...one leg down one leg up then a final leg down.

If a bear rally does occur, I see it starting at some lower level, not starting from the Nov. lows, and not now.

Dow Confirmation Close at Hand

I mentioned earlier that the Dow Transports had broken below its November low. I now see that the sister index, the DJ Industrial Average is very close to also breaking below its Nov. low. It could happen tomorrow. If this occurs...it will be a textbook case of Dow Theory confirming a continuation of the downtrend below the November lows.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are still some distance above their Nov. lows but the number of canaries is growing. Since the Canadian TSX Capped Financials Index has already gone below its Nov. low the other Canadian Indexes will most likely follow as well.

A Dow Bear Trend Continuation Confirmation may be newsworthy enough to make the headlines.

This is additional technical evidence to support my expectation of the November lows being broken for all indexes.

Berkshire Hathaway is down by 43%

Interesting. On a percentage basis, my portfolio is officially much better off than Warren's. I haven't lost a dime since the crash began. I'm a little ahead.

Berkshire Hathaway is down 43 % since the peak. I guess they subscribe to the buy and hold thesis and the fund tracks the market closely.

Unfortunately there may be more bad news for Warren. The chart suggests that Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE) may just be starting the decline. It has broken below a 9 year trendline on high volume. That is not a good sign.

The real test will be to see how I do compared to Warren after the bear is over and the next bull is well under way.

Markets Going Down This Morning

Further to my post about the possibility of General Motors going into bankruptcy and the markets waiting for "an excuse" to go lower.

It looks like it may have started this am. The charts indicated that the stage had been set for "this possibility". As always, this was just one possibility for the markets.